Response to Ethan Ellis? Blog on the CLASS Program

Ethan Ellis' blog on the CLASS Program is a good read. There is, however, one fairly significant factual error in the post -- the CLASS program would be voluntary. Workers would need to "opt out" in order to avoid having pay roll deductions being taken out. There is the rub. Proponents predict most would stay enroll and not "opt out". CBO and the CMS actuary predict the young and "healthy" would not see any benefit to having a little less cash in their pockets each payday and would opt out by the droves. This is aka adverse selection and arguably would drive costs thru the roof. Both sides can point to research to bolster their case -- none of it definitive. I have my own issues with CLASS but have come to view it as a necessary, albeit incremental step. As a nation, we tend not to make social reforms in one fall swoop. That makes things messy as you note. But, I see no other way of getting there from here. One other New Year prediction -- CLASS will become a major point of contention. It might be in the conference report that is voted on by the House and Senate. I think, though, opponents of health reform have been laying low and will try to make it part of a final seize. Best wishes to you and yours for a better 2010!